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Table 3 INTERGROWTH-21st fetal growth chart centiles and perinatal morbidity/mortality: Proportion of the population below the cut-point, predicted absolute risks, and test performance characteristics

From: Which chart and which cut-point: deciding on the INTERGROWTH, World Health Organization, or Hadlock fetal growth chart

 

Impact on workflow

Absolute risks

Test characteristics

Cut-point centile

Proportion of population < centile cut-point, n(%)

Predicted absolute risk of morbidity/mortality, per 100 (95%CI)

Predicted absolute risk differencea, per 100 (95%CI)

Sensitivity

% (95% CI)

Specificity

% (95% CI)

Positive predictive value

% (95% CI)

Negative predictive value

% (95% CI)

3rd

139 (1.3)

16.6 (12.6, 21.0)

13.2 (9.1, 17.7)

6 (4, 9)

99 (99, 99)

22 (15, 29)

96 (95, 96)

10th

345 (3.3)

10.5 (7.6, 12.9)

7.1 (4.0, 9.7)

11 (8, 14)

97 (97, 97)

15 (11, 19)

96 (95, 96)

29thb

1022 (9.9)

5.1 (3.8, 6.6)

1.7 (0.1, 3.5)

21 (17, 25)

91 (90, 91)

10 (8, 12)

96 (96, 96)

39thc

1481 (14.3)

3.9 (2.8, 5.1)

0.5 (−0.7, 1.7)

26 (22, 30)

86 (86, 87)

8 (7, 10)

96 (96, 96)

50th

2107 (20.3)

3.4 (2.5, 4.4)

reference

31 (26, 35)

80 (79, 81)

7 (6, 8)

96 (96, 96)

  1. aCompared with 50th centile. Calculated from 10,000 bootstrap replicates
  2. bCentile that identifies 10% of the cohort as below that cut-point
  3. cStatistically optimized cut-point by Youden’s Index