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Table 5 Performance of risk factors, alone or in combination, for the identification of GDM, with two criteria (2017 Norwegian and 2013 WHO)

From: Identifying women with gestational diabetes based on maternal characteristics: an analysis of four Norwegian prospective studies

2017 Norwegian criteria
Risk factors Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%) PPV (%) NPV (%) OGTT’s needed (%) Undetected GDM cases (%)
European background, n = 2588
 BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 53.0 75.6 15.5 95 26.6 47.0
 BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 36.6 87 19.2 94.2 14.9 63.4
 BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 22.8 94.4 24.4 93.9 6.8 77.7
 Age ≥ 25 years 91.1 10.1 7.9 93.1 90.0 8.9
 Age ≥ 30 years 60.4 45.5 8.6 93.1 54.9 39.6
 Age ≥ 25 or BMI ≥ 25 96.5 7.2 8.1 96.1 93.1 3.5
 Age ≥ 30 or BMI ≥ 30 71.3 42.7 9.5 94.6 58.4 28.7
 Age ≥ 30 or BMI ≥ 27 74.3 39.4 9.4 94.8 61.6 25.7
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 25) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 85.1 26.0 8.9 95.4 74.9 14.9
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 25) or (parous + age ≥ 40) 78.7 32.3 9.0 94.7 68.5 21.3
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 30) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 72.8 47.9 10.6 95.4 53.7 27.2
 BMI ≥ 27 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 30) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 61.9 54.5 10.3 94.4 46.8 38.1
 Family history of diabetes* 11.5 89.1 8.7 92.1 10.6 87.3
 BMI ≥ 25 or Age ≥ 30 or family history of diabetes 87.8 22.8 9.3 95.4 78.1 12.2
Non-European background, n = 393
 BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2 64.2 46.0 30.5 77.6 56.7 35.8
 BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 47.2 66.2 34.0 77.2 37.4 52.8
 BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 37.7 80.5 41.7 77.8 24.4 62.3
 Age ≥ 25 years 80.2 23.3 27.9 76.1 77.6 19.8
 Age ≥ 30 years 50.0 63.4 33.5 77.4 40.2 50.0
 Age ≥ 25 or BMI ≥ 25 87.7 17.4 28.2 79.4 84.0 12.3
 Age ≥ 30 or BMI ≥ 23 74.5 33.1 29.2 77.9 69.0 25.5
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 25) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 69.8 42.5 31.0 79.2 60.8 30.2
 Family history of diabetes* 42.6 64.3 30.3 75.4 37.6 57.4
2013 WHO criteria
Risk factors Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%) PPV (%) NPV (%) OGTT’s needed (%) Undetected GDM cases (%)
European background, n = 2588
 BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 48.3 76.8 25.0 90.3 26.6 51.7
 BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 33.2 87.9 29.5 89.7 14.9 66.8
 BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 16.6 94.8 33.7 87.7 6.8 83.4
 Age ≥ 25 years 90.4 10.1 13.8 86.9 90.0 9.6
 Age ≥ 30 years 62.1 46.2 15.5 88.4 54.9 37.9
 Age ≥ 25 or BMI ≥ 25 95.2 7.2 14.1 90.4 93.1 4.8
 Age ≥ 30 or BMI ≥ 30 69.7 43.4 16.4 90.0 58.4 30.3
 Age ≥ 30 or BMI ≥ 27 75.0 40.5 16.7 91.0 61.6 25.0
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 25) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 83.1 26.4 15.3 90.8 74.9 16.9
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 25) or (parous + age ≥ 40) 76.4 32.7 15.3 89.7 68.5 23.6
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 30) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 71.1 49.1 18.2 91.4 53.7 28.9
 BMI ≥ 27 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 30) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 62.9 55.8 18.5 90.4 46.8 37.1
 Family history of diabetes* 13.2 89.5 17.3 86.6 10.6 86.8
 BMI ≥ 25 or Age ≥ 30 or family history of diabetes 87.5 23.5 16.2 91.8 78.1 12.5
Non-European background, n = 393
 BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2 66.2 49.0 43.9 70.6 56.7 33.8
 BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 47.3 68.6 47.6 68.3 37.4 52.7
 BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2 36.5 89.2 56.3 68.4 24.4 63.5
 Age ≥ 25 years 80.4 24.1 39.0 67.0 77.6 19.6
 Age ≥ 30 years 48.0 64.5 44.9 67.2 40.2 52.0
 Age ≥ 25 or BMI ≥ 25 87.8 18.4 39.4 71.4 84.0 12.2
 Age ≥ 30 or BMI ≥ 23 76.4 35.5 41.7 71.3 69.0 23.6
 BMI ≥ 25 or (Primipara + Age ≥ 25) or (parous + age ≥ 35) 69.6 44.5 43.1 70.8 60.8 30.4
 Family history of diabetes* 40.1 64.0 40.1 64.0 37.6 59.9
  1. Abbrevations: BMI body mass index, WHO World Health Organization, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, OGTT oral glucose tolerance test, GDM gestational diabetes
  2. *Family history of diabetes was not measured in Fit for Delivery