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Table 3 Extended multivariable prediction model for stillbirth (Extended model)

From: Predicting stillbirth in a low resource setting

Predictors

Unadjusted β coef.

Standard error

P-value

Adjusted β coef.

Maternal comorbidity

0.60

0.100

<0.001

0.60

Place of residence (rural)

1.27

0.129

<0.001

1.26

Maternal occupation

    

 Self employed

−0.27

0.143

0.07

−0.26

 Employee

−0.33

0.183

0.07

−0.33

Maternal parity

0.10

0.024

<0.001

0.10

Bleeding (yes)

2.04

0.142

<0.001

2.01

Fetal presentation

    

 Breech

0.83

0.181

<0.001

0.83

 Others

2.15

0.241

<0.001

2.07

Growth rate

−0.18

0.026

<0.001

−0.18

  1. Unadjusted β coef. denotes β coefficient before penalization; Adjusted β coef. denotes β coefficient after penalization
  2. C-statistic before and after penalization 0.82 (95 % CI 0.80–0.85)
  3. \( \begin{array}{l}\mathrm{Risk}\ \mathrm{of}\ \mathrm{s}\mathrm{tillbirth} = 1\ /\ 1 + \exp \left(\hbox{-} \right(\hbox{-} 1.7035 + 0.5965*\left(\mathrm{comorbidity}\right) + 1.2603*\left(\mathrm{rural}\right)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.2647*\left(\mathrm{self}\hbox{-} \mathrm{employed}\right)\ \hbox{--} \\ {}0.3265*\left(\mathrm{employee}\right) + 0.0959*\left(\mathrm{parity}\right) + 2.0149*\left(\mathrm{bleeding}\ \mathrm{in}\ \mathrm{pregnancy}\right) + 0.8342*\left(\mathrm{breech}\ \mathrm{presentation}\right) + \\ {}2.0677*\left(\mathrm{other}\ \mathrm{presentation}\mathrm{s}\right)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.1810*\left(\mathrm{fetal}\ \mathrm{growth}\ \mathrm{rate}\right)\end{array} \)
  4. For example the risk of a para-five, unemployed, hypertensive pregnant woman in breech presentation with a positive history of vaginal bleeding in pregnancy, dwelling in a rural area and the estimated fetal weight by obstetric scan at 22 weeks was 650 g
  5. \( \begin{array}{l}\begin{array}{l}\mathrm{Risk}\ \mathrm{of}\ \mathrm{stillbirth} = 1\ /\ 1 + \exp \Big(\hbox{-} \left(\hbox{-} 1.7035 + 0.5965(1) + 1.2603(1)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.2647(1)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.3265(0) + 0.0959(5) + 2.0149(1)+\right.\\ {}\left.0.8342(1) + 2.0677(0)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.1810\left(650/22*7\right)\right)\ \end{array}\hfill \\ {}\begin{array}{l}\kern6.75em = 1/1 + \exp \left(\hbox{-} 2.4532\right)\\ {}\mathrm{Risk}\ \mathrm{of}\ \mathrm{stillbirth} = 0.92\end{array}\hfill \end{array} \)
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BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth

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