Predicting stillbirth in a low resource setting

Table 2 Multivariable prediction model for stillbirth (Basic model)

Predictors	Unadjusted β coef.	Standard error	P-value	Adjusted β coef.
Maternal comorbidity	0.71	0.097	<0.001	0.71
Place of residence (rural)	1.31	0.129	<0.001	1.30
Maternal occupation
Self employed	−0.30	0.144	0.035	−0.30
Employee	−0.38	0.182	0.037	−0.38
Maternal parity	0.08	0.024	0.001	0.08
Bleeding (yes)	2.18	0.139	<0.001	2.16
Fetal presentation
Breech	0.96	0.182	<0.001	0.96
Others	2.12	0.240	<0.001	2.06

Unadjusted β coef. denotes β coefficient before penalization; Adjusted β coef. denotes β coefficient after penalization
C-statistic before and after penalization 0.80 (95 % CI 0.78–0.83)
\( \begin{array}{l}\mathrm{Risk}\ \mathrm{of}\ \mathrm{s}\mathrm{tillbirth} = 1\ /\ 1 + \exp \Big(\hbox{-} \left(\hbox{-} 3.6486 + 0.7077*\left(\mathrm{comorbidity}\right) + 1.3047*\left(\mathrm{rural}\right)\ \hbox{--} 0.3022*\left(\mathrm{self}\hbox{-} \mathrm{employed}\right)\hbox{-} \right.\\ {}0.3788*\left(\mathrm{employee}\right) + 0.0797*\left(\mathrm{parity}\right) + 2.1579*\left(\mathrm{bleeding}\ \mathrm{in}\ \mathrm{pregnancy}\right) + 0.9616*\left(\mathrm{breech}\ \mathrm{presentation}\right) + \\ {}\left.2.0588*\left(\mathrm{other}\ \mathrm{presentation}\mathrm{s}\right)\right)\end{array} \)
For example the risk of a para-7, unemployed, hypertensive, diabetic pregnant woman in compound presentation with a positive history of vaginal bleeding in pregnancy, dwelling in a rural area is
\( \begin{array}{l}\mathrm{Risk}\ \mathrm{of}\ \mathrm{stillbirth} = 1\ /\ 1 + \exp \Big(\hbox{-} \left(\hbox{-} 3.6486 + 0.7077*(2) + 1.3047(1)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.3022(1)\ \hbox{--}\ 0.3788(0)+0.0797(7)+2.1579(1)\right.\\ {}\left.+\kern0.5em 0.9616(0)+2.0588(1)\right)\\ {}=1/1\kern0.5em +\kern0.5em \exp \left(\hbox{-} 3.5439\right)\\ {}\mathrm{Risk}\kern0.5em \mathrm{of}\kern0.5em \mathrm{stillbirth}=0.97\end{array} \)

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