Figure 4

Markov state transition decision model used in analysis. This diagram depicts the model used in the analysis. In the figure on the top, the square on the left represents a “decision node” from which 2 branches, representing alternative management strategies emanate. Each strategy leads to the same Markov node, represented by a square with the “∞” symbol. The branches leading from the Markov node represent the various potential health states that patients pass through during the model simulation. Although the potential states for each strategy are the same, the initial distribution among states and probabilities associated with transitions between states will differ between strategies. The figure on the bottom is the modeled adverse events. During each time period or “cycle”, modeled patients are at risk for various adverse events. Round nodes represent the chance events. For each patient, the sequence of outcomes at these “chance” nodes will determine the state at which they begin the next cycle.