How many births in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will not be attended by a skilled birth attendant between 2011 and 2015?

Table 1 Analysis scenarios

	Annual% change in SBA delivery based on current trend	More optimistic projection of annual% change in SBA delivery *	Very optimistic projection of annual% change in SBA delivery ^†	High fertility assumption for projected births	Low fertility assumption for projected births
Scenario 1	X			X
Scenario 2		X		X
Scenario 3			X	X
Scenario 4	X				X
Scenario 5		X			X
Scenario 6			X		X

The six scenarios used in the analysis, each of which assumes one of three projections in changes in SBA attendance and one of two fertility assumptions regarding projected number of births. *Annual percentage change is double (^†quadruple) the current trend, but for any given country, this value is capped at the maximum observed current trend across all countries (Bhutan, 17% annual improvement). A lower bound of zero was applied to all scenarios.

ISSN: 1471-2393